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Couples undergoing IVF treatment could be given the option to pick the “smartest” embryo within the next 10 years, a leading US scientist has predicted.据美国一名权威科学家预计，未来10年之内，做到试管婴儿的夫妇将需要自由选择“最聪明”的胚胎。Stephen Hsu, senior vice president for research at Michigan State University, said scientific advances mean it will soon be feasible to reliably rank embryos according to potential IQ, posing profound ethical questions for society about whether or not the technology should be adopted.美国密歇根州立大学主管科研的副校长徐道辉（斯蒂芬·徐）说道，科学变革意味著人类旋即就需要对胚胎的潜在智商得出可信的评分，这项技术否应当用于将是一个深刻印象的社会伦理问题。Hsu’s company, Genomic Prediction, already offers a test aimed at screening out embryos with abnormally low IQ to couples being treated at fertility clinics in the US.徐道辉的基因组预测公司早已为在美国不孕不育医院拒绝接受化疗的夫妇获取了一项检测服务，目的筛查出有智商出现异常较低的胚胎。“Accurate IQ predictors will be possible, if not the next five years, the next 10 years certainly,” Hsu told the Guardian. “I predict certain countries will adopt them.”徐道辉对《卫报》记者说道：“精确的智商预测是有可能的，即使不是未来5年内，那么在未来10年内也认同可以。
我预计一些国家不会接纳这项技术。”The prospect of a new generation of genetically selected babies has prompted concerns about unintended medical consequences and the potential for deepening existing social inequalities. The science underpinning the claim that intelligence can be meaningfully predicted by genetic tests is also contentious.新一代基因自由选择婴儿的前景引起了人们对于车祸医疗后果和现有社会不公平有可能激化的忧虑。
基因检测需要有效地预测智商的科学技术也引起了争议。Peter Donnelly, a professor of statistical science at the University of Oxford, said any such IQ predictions should be treated with “huge caution”, adding: “I have grave misgivings about it on ethical grounds. I think it’s a really bad idea.”牛津大学统计学教授彼得·唐纳利说，应当“十分慎重”地对待此类智商预测。
他说道：“出于伦理原因，我回应十分忧虑。我指出这是一个十分差劲的点子。”Since the 1990s, couples undergoing IVF have been able to screen their embryos for mutations in single genes that cause serious diseases such as cystic fibrosis, as well as conditions like Down’s syndrome, caused by chromosome abnormalities.自上世纪90年代以来，拒绝接受试管受精卵的夫妇早已需要对他们的胚胎展开检验，以找到单个基因的变异，这些变异不会造成相当严重的疾病，比如囊性纤维化，以及染色体出现异常造成的唐氏综合征等。
Many other traits, including height, physical appearance, intelligence and disease susceptibility, are known to be partly heritable. But because the genetic component is spread thinly over hundreds or even thousands of DNA regions, it has previously been impossible to screen for these traits.许多其他特征，还包括体重、外貌、智力和疾病易感性，都被指出是部分遗传的。但由于遗传组分稀疏地集中在数百甚至数千个DNA区域，以前不有可能对这些特征展开检验。In the past decade, as vast genetic databases have been established, this picture has changed. Through analyzing many genes, each making a tiny contribution, it has been possible to calculate what are called polygenic risk scores, which give a person’s likelihood of getting a particular disease or having a certain trait.在过去的十年里，随着大量基因数据库的创建，这种情况早已再次发生了转变。通过分析大量基因，每个基因都作出了微小的贡献，就有可能计算出来出有所谓的多基因风险评分，即一个人患某种特定疾病或具备某种特征的可能性。
Genomic Prediction is the first company to take embryo screening into this grey area of risk forecasting, offering to alert couples if an embryo has an “outlier” score for risk of cancers, diabetes, heart disease, dwarfism or low IQ.基因组预测公司是第一家将胚胎筛查划入风险预测这一灰色地带的公司。如果胚胎在癌症、糖尿病、心脏病、侏儒症或智商低落等风险方面的评分“出现异常”，它就不会警告做到筛查的夫妇。Prediction for IQ is not good enough to give a reliable ranking, but Hsu said that knowing an embryo has a low score could still be desirable.智商预测目前还足以得出可信的评分，但徐道辉回应，如果一个胚胎的智商评分较低，人们有可能还是很想要告诉。
“Maybe the bottom 1% embryo will grow up to be a great person … even be a scientist, but the odds are against it,” he said. “I honestly feel if we can calculate that score and find a real negative outlier there’s an ethical responsibility for us to report that.”徐道辉说道：“或许评分低于的1%的胚胎长大后不会沦为一个杰出的人……甚至沦为一名科学家，但这种可能性较小。我知道实在，如果我们能计算出来出有这个评分，找到它低得十分出现异常，那么我们就有道德责任不予告诉。”The company projects that once high-quality genetic and academic achievement data from a million individuals becomes available, expected to be within five to 10 years, it will be able to predict IQ to within about 10 points.该公司预计，在5至10年内，一旦100万人的高质量基因和学术成就数据能用，它将需要预测智商，误差在10分以内。Hsu is reticent about whether screening for high intelligence would be ethically justified, saying: “Let me just decline to answer that at the moment.”徐道辉不愿评论高智商筛查否合乎伦理标准，说道“目前我拒绝接受问这个问题”。
In some countries, such as Singapore, there is likely to be a high level of public acceptance and demand for such tests, he suggested. “I think the overwhelming majority would say yes, absolutely, parents should be allowed to do that,” he said. “Before you write your piece, you might just want to think that a billion people on the other side of the world might have a different view.”徐道辉说道，在一些国家，比如新加坡，公众对此类检测的接受度和市场需求可能会很高。他说道：“我指出绝大多数人认同不会赞同容许父母这样做到。在你写出这篇报导之前，或许应当看看地球另外一端的10亿人有可能有有所不同的观点。
”Whether such tests will become available in the UK would depend on approval from the Human Fertilization and Embryology Authority (HFEA).这种检测方法能否在英国实行将各不相同英国人工授精与胚胎学管理局的批准后。“If the HFEA decides that it’s not right for the UK, I will respect that,” Hsu said, but predicted that “rich people from the UK will fly to Singapore” if they are unable to get the tests locally.他说道:“如果英国人工授精与胚胎学管理局指出这对英国不适合，我会认同这个要求。
”但他预测，如果英国富人无法在当地展开这项检测，“他们不会飞回新加坡去做到的。”Some in the UK take the view that prospective parents have a right to access such tests. “I don’t think people should be deprived of that knowledge,” said Prof Simon Fishel, the founder of Care Fertility.在英国，一些人指出未来的父母有权展开此类检测。生育关怀的组织的创始人西蒙·费舍尔教授说道:“我指出不应当褫夺人们的这种知情权。”Fishel questioned whether there is any ethical difference between picking an embryo ranked highest for IQ or sending a child to a private school. “What’s wrong with ranking an embryo if you can rank a child·” he said. “I think there are plenty of people who’d choose embryo Oxford [rather] than embryo A-level failure.”费舍尔批评挑选出智商最低的胚胎和送来孩子去私立学校之间否不存在伦理上的差异。
“如果你能给孩子评分，那给胚胎评分又有什么错呢？”他说道。“我指出有很多人会自由选择未来能考上牛津的胚胎而不是无法通过英国中学高级水平考试的胚胎。
”In practice, though, couples often have only a few embryos to choose from. And there are concerns about unintended consequences. For instance, there is some evidence linking higher polygenic scores for academic ability to higher likelihood of autism.但实质上，夫妇们一般来说只有几个胚胎可供选择。此外，人们还担忧不会经常出现意想不到的后果。例如，有证据指出，学术能力的多基因分数越高，患自闭症的可能性就越大。
The technology is controversial, but that does not mean it will not gain acceptance in the future, Hsu said, drawing parallels with the reaction to IVF in its early days.徐道辉说道，这项技术不存在争议，但这并不意味著它在未来会被拒绝接受，这与早期人们对体外受精的反应类似于。“The IVF pioneers … were called monsters, Frankenstein doctors; it was predicted that these babies would have health problems,” he said. “I am actually reassured by that. IVF is completely normalized now. Everyone who is pointing their finger at [Genomic Prediction] now should go back and read those articles.”他说道：“试管婴儿的先驱被称作怪物，弗兰肯斯坦医生。当时人们预测这些婴儿不会有身体健康问题。
实质上，我回应很安心。试管受精卵现在早已几乎正常化。现在，所有谴责（基因组预测）的人都应当回来读读那些文章。
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